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09:58　　　來(lái)源：經(jīng)濟(jì)參考報(bào)</div> <div id="3vzjk3zj44k" class="mainbox_02" id="textsize"><P>　　上周四，迪拜的危機(jī)讓全球市場(chǎng)驚出了一身冷汗。這一危機(jī)可能導(dǎo)致金融機(jī)構(gòu)“受驚”，或令全球經(jīng)濟(jì)短期進(jìn)入新一輪信貸緊縮。 </P> <P>　　不過(guò)，有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，相比阿根廷和俄羅斯當(dāng)年的債務(wù)危機(jī)，迪拜危機(jī)潛在損失的規(guī)模小了很多，對(duì)金融市場(chǎng)的實(shí)質(zhì)性影響有限。況且，現(xiàn)在事情似乎在朝著積極的方向發(fā)展：阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)中央銀行11月29日表示，將為境內(nèi)銀行提供流動(dòng)性支持，以作為應(yīng)對(duì)迪拜債務(wù)危機(jī)的第一項(xiàng)政策舉措。就迪拜事件而言，只可能定性為“金融危機(jī)余孽”，而非第二波金融海嘯的“導(dǎo)火索”。 </P> <P>　　有人可能會(huì)問(wèn)，迪拜危機(jī)會(huì)不會(huì)影響各國(guó)政府對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇“速度”的判斷，“經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃退出”會(huì)不會(huì)被延時(shí)。筆者認(rèn)為，展望明年，世界各主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體定量寬松政策的退出仍將有序展開(kāi)。 </P> <P>　　在金融危機(jī)期間，西方各國(guó)央行采取的定量寬松貨幣政策，主要是對(duì)種類(lèi)不同資產(chǎn)的收購(gòu)，這一政策緩解了全球市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性的匱乏。不過(guò)，在貨幣政策擴(kuò)張的過(guò)程中，隨著央行資產(chǎn)規(guī)模的膨脹，也必然帶來(lái)資產(chǎn)泡沫和潛在通脹壓力。 </P> <P>　　考察大宗商品市場(chǎng)、全球股市，資產(chǎn)泡沫和通脹預(yù)期已經(jīng)再度回潮，資源大國(guó)———澳大利亞和新興市場(chǎng)———印度已經(jīng)開(kāi)始逐步政策退出。雖然，近期美國(guó)失業(yè)率處于歷史高位，但考慮此前歷次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中，美國(guó)都曾在渡過(guò)一段痛苦的無(wú)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)后，經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速?gòu)?fù)蘇，主要研究機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)預(yù)期，美國(guó)將在明年三季度退出寬松貨幣政策。 </P> <P>　　那么中國(guó)的政策呢？正在中國(guó)南京舉行的中歐領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人峰會(huì)和27日召開(kāi)的中央政治局會(huì)議成為了市場(chǎng)感知政策冷暖的最新窗口。前者，在中歐領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人峰會(huì)上，溫家寶總理說(shuō)，面對(duì)國(guó)際金融危機(jī)的巨大沖擊，中國(guó)積極擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需，穩(wěn)定外需，保持了經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)。當(dāng)前，各國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的重點(diǎn)仍然應(yīng)該是應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)、刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。過(guò)早“退出”會(huì)使成果得而復(fù)失。后者，中央政治局會(huì)議上明確，明年保持宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的連續(xù)性和穩(wěn)定性，繼續(xù)實(shí)施積極的財(cái)政政策和適度寬松的貨幣政策。會(huì)議還提出，根據(jù)新形勢(shì)新情況著力提高政策的針對(duì)性和靈活性。 </P> <P>　　這中間到底透露了什么信息？“將要召開(kāi)的中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會(huì)議會(huì)列出一長(zhǎng)串政策清單�！敝袊�(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院副院長(zhǎng)李揚(yáng)在“第十屆中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行與政策論壇”上表示。他指出，相對(duì)來(lái)說(shuō)，明年中國(guó)財(cái)政政策會(huì)比較平穩(wěn)，貨幣政策會(huì)有所變化。2008年下半年開(kāi)始實(shí)行的適度寬松的貨幣政策，2009年政策的重點(diǎn)放在“寬松”上，2010年政策的重點(diǎn)會(huì)放在“適度”上。 </P> <P>　　相比國(guó)外，國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，樓市、股市的泡沫相比全球有過(guò)之而無(wú)不及，雖然外界擔(dān)憂(yōu)先于美國(guó)退出會(huì)加劇熱錢(qián)流入。不過(guò)，考慮中國(guó)的“退出”方式將以數(shù)量為先，信貸由“寬松”轉(zhuǎn)為“適度”無(wú)疑首先壓制的將是資產(chǎn)泡沫，反而不會(huì)帶來(lái)熱錢(qián)壓力，中國(guó)的政策退出或?qū)⒃缬诿绹?guó)。 </P> <P>　　回頭看迪拜的發(fā)展歷程，地產(chǎn)與金融的捆綁發(fā)展，造就了這顆阿拉伯世界的耀眼明珠。但是，這種空心化的捆綁發(fā)展模式，也直接埋下了這次危機(jī)的隱患。借鑒經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、中國(guó)人民大學(xué)黃衛(wèi)平教授的觀點(diǎn)：“在這個(gè)世界上凡是靠房地產(chǎn)拉動(dòng)的國(guó)家，結(jié)果沒(méi)有不是崩盤(pán)的，世界老大美國(guó)靠房地產(chǎn)拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)局是崩盤(pán)；世界的老二日本靠房地產(chǎn)拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)局是崩盤(pán)。在世界上大概只有德國(guó)逃過(guò)這一劫，凡是這個(gè)地球上靠房地產(chǎn)拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的國(guó)家結(jié)局都是崩盤(pán)，尤其當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)和金融緊密結(jié)合成為一種金融衍生工具時(shí)，不崩盤(pán)那簡(jiǎn)直就不是經(jīng)濟(jì)�！� </P> <P>　　此次金融危機(jī)后，迪拜房?jī)r(jià)暴跌，與去年高點(diǎn)比，最多的已下跌70%。在中國(guó)，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)金融對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的捆綁同樣嚴(yán)重。截至今年6月末，商業(yè)性房地產(chǎn)貸款余額6.21萬(wàn)億元。雖然上半年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)幾乎全靠政府資助的固定資產(chǎn)投資，但在第三季度，房地產(chǎn)的投資速度明顯加快。同期，北京、上海、深圳、海南房?jī)r(jià)再度飆升，也已經(jīng)超過(guò)了上次高點(diǎn)。 </P> <P>　　因此，考慮到貨幣、資產(chǎn)、泡沫的三角關(guān)系，明年貨幣政策由“寬松”轉(zhuǎn)為“適度”也在情理之中。實(shí)際上，中國(guó)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)決策在用詞上和西方成熟市場(chǎng)有一定的差異。在政策調(diào)整方面，從實(shí)際決策效果看，中國(guó)不用“退出”這樣的詞匯，而是用諸如“動(dòng)態(tài)微調(diào)”此類(lèi)比較溫和的用詞。從2009年上半年月均1萬(wàn)億的信貸投放，6月份1.53萬(wàn)億，7月份3559億，到10月份只有2530億，第三季度的調(diào)整幅度之大，實(shí)際上已經(jīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的超預(yù)期做了超前的微調(diào)，總體上看對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)是有利的。 </P> <P>　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，無(wú)論從哪個(gè)角度來(lái)看，2010年必然面臨擴(kuò)張型政策退出這樣一個(gè)主題和政策任務(wù)。無(wú)論是中國(guó)還是歐美，必然有個(gè)退出的時(shí)間方式的選擇，即退出的方式、節(jié)奏、力度將成為影響2010年市場(chǎng)的一個(gè)非常重要的政策主線(xiàn)。在政策工具的選擇上，首先看到的將是財(cái)政資金運(yùn)用微調(diào)和準(zhǔn)備金率的調(diào)整。還有一些專(zhuān)家認(rèn)為，匯率和利率的調(diào)整效果更好，使得整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇和資本市場(chǎng)的恢復(fù)、上揚(yáng)持續(xù)時(shí)間更長(zhǎng)。 </P> <P>　　在退出時(shí)間的判斷上，可以設(shè)想刺激型政策退出的各種可能性，例如，過(guò)早退出可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)的二次探底，這一點(diǎn)的可能性目前看較低；第二種可能性是等到物價(jià)顯著有上升盈利時(shí)再退出，這種退出方式會(huì)導(dǎo)致2010年上半年市場(chǎng)的大幅攀升以及隨后不得不采取嚴(yán)厲的緊縮導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)的大幅調(diào)整。第三種可能性則是較為平穩(wěn)的退出。但是究竟在何種條件下退出，需要進(jìn)一步的觀察，2009年三季度的動(dòng)態(tài)微調(diào)具有較大的參考價(jià)值。</P></div> <div id="3vzjk3zj44k" class="coupage"> <script> //createPageHTML(1, 0, "t20091201_1158878", "htm"); var currentPage = 0;//所在頁(yè)從0開(kāi)始 //var headPage = "t20091201_1158878"+"."+"htm";//首頁(yè) //var tailPage = "t20091201_1158878_" + (countPage-1) + ".htm"http://尾頁(yè) var prevPage = currentPage-1//上一頁(yè) var nextPage = currentPage+1//下一頁(yè) var countPage = 1//共多少頁(yè) if(countPage>=2){ if(countPage<=1) document.getElementById("page").style.display="none"; document.write("共 <font class='9ptr'><strong>"+countPage+"</strong></font> 頁(yè) "); //設(shè)置上一頁(yè)代碼 if(countPage>1&¤tPage!=0&¤tPage!=1) document.write("<a href=\"t20091201_1158878.htm\">首頁(yè)</a> <a 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