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href="../" target="_blank">經(jīng)濟(jì)觀察</a></div> <div id="kkgkikgkg" class="itmright">字號：<a href="javascript:doZoom(16)">大</a> <a href="javascript:doZoom(14)">中</a> <a href="javascript:doZoom(12)">小</a> </div> </div> <div id="kkgkikgkg" class="mainbox_01"style="border-bottom:#999 1px solid; margin-bottom:10px;"> <h1>2010年中美歐三角關(guān)系或?qū)⑹Ш?/h1> </div> <div id="kkgkikgkg" class="mainbox_01"style="text-align:center;color:#006aa2"> 時(shí)間:2010-02-26 15:36　　　來源：中國日報(bào)網(wǎng)</div> <div id="kkgkikgkg" class="mainbox_02" id="textsize"><P>　　中國日報(bào)網(wǎng)消息：英文《中國日報(bào)》2月25日評論版頭條：中國、歐洲和美國三者之間一直存在一個(gè)“隱形”的三角博弈關(guān)系。每當(dāng)中美“交惡”時(shí)，中國和歐洲的關(guān)系必然升溫；中歐關(guān)系出現(xiàn)波折時(shí)，中美便進(jìn)入蜜月期。但金融危機(jī)發(fā)生后及近一段時(shí)期中國與美歐之間的諸多紛爭表明，歐美聯(lián)手打壓中國態(tài)勢正“悄然”成形，傳統(tǒng)的中美歐相互制衡的三角關(guān)系或?qū)⑹Ш狻?/P> <P>　　歐洲與中國在傾銷與反傾銷、英籍毒販阿克毛問題、究竟誰該為哥本哈根氣候變化峰會(huì)失敗承擔(dān)責(zé)任等問題上的分歧還未解決，美國又就谷歌事件、對臺軍售、涉藏及“軍事透明度”問題等挑起對華事端。此外，由于中國并未按美歐對國際貿(mào)易失衡、伊朗核問題、緬甸局勢、非洲事務(wù)、全球氣候變化等問題開出的“藥方”直接“抓藥”，美歐便一直在相關(guān)問題上糾纏不休。歐美“你方唱罷，我登場”，聯(lián)手夾擊中國之勢明顯。</P> <P>　　美歐聯(lián)手制華有其現(xiàn)實(shí)必然性。其一，金融危機(jī)沖擊世界格局的必然結(jié)果。此次“百年不遇”的金融危機(jī)的影響是全方位的，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的重心開始由西方向東方轉(zhuǎn)移。以中國為代表的新興國家的迅速崛起要求改變現(xiàn)存的世界格局，損失部分既得利益的歐美國家必然心態(tài)復(fù)雜。五十年前歐洲強(qiáng)大的軍事實(shí)力和政治影響力已從絢爛中歸于平淡。美國實(shí)力和地位的相對下降逼迫奧巴馬在對外演講中把美國從“最重要的國家”變成了“最重要的國家之一”，奧巴馬用詞上的變化不是出于虛偽而是無奈。但長期以來美歐中心主義和文明優(yōu)越感使得美歐很難迅速接受中國的迅速崛起，歐美不會(huì)甘心根本放棄對國際事務(wù)的主導(dǎo)地位。雖然歐美之間也存在角力，但是面對共同的戰(zhàn)略競爭對手，歐美則有太多的理由“求同存異”，共同聯(lián)手。</P> <P>　　其二，美歐必須為緩慢的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇找到一個(gè)合理的解釋，而中國正是這個(gè)“解釋”。近期中國公布的2009年經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)表明，中國V形復(fù)蘇已經(jīng)確定，2009年8.7%的GDP增長率令世界驚訝。與中國強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇形成鮮明對比的是美歐復(fù)蘇的緩慢，美歐民眾不滿情緒越來越大，對此美歐亟需給出一個(gè)“客觀”原因。2009年取代德國成為出口冠軍之后，今年還將超越日本成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的中國是一個(gè)理想選擇。美國和歐洲似乎都為本國失業(yè)率居高不下、經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇緩慢等“病癥”從中國找到了“病因”，中國“不負(fù)責(zé)任”的擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政貨幣政策、人為壓低的人民幣匯率和重商主義的貿(mào)易發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略等等都成為美歐指責(zé)的對象。美歐更是借機(jī)頻頻華揮舞保護(hù)主義大棒，主動(dòng)挑起多項(xiàng)貿(mào)易摩擦。歐洲理事會(huì)常任主席范龍佩1月18日再次強(qiáng)調(diào)恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長并確保不低于2%的平均增長率是目前歐盟的優(yōu)先目標(biāo)，在其“歐盟2020戰(zhàn)略”草案中，增加就業(yè)、擴(kuò)大出口被列為提振經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要舉措。在1月27日的“國情咨文”演講中，奧巴馬同樣將增加就業(yè)、謀求發(fā)展、削減赤字列為2010年的工作重點(diǎn)�？梢灶A(yù)料未來美歐擴(kuò)大對外出口措施極有可能會(huì)加劇中國與美歐的貿(mào)易摩擦。</P> <P>　　其三，通過外交政策調(diào)整緩解國內(nèi)政治壓力。奧巴馬在過去的一年中對華較為友好，但美國國內(nèi)卻對去年11月奧巴馬高調(diào)訪華，卻空手而歸頗有微詞。奧巴馬的“巧實(shí)力”外交并未帶來其競選時(shí)所承諾的“變革”。民主黨對奧巴馬外交政策的打分為B+，而共和黨給出的僅為D+，不盡如人意。奧巴馬正面臨民意支持率大幅下降的窘境，此刻亟需找到提升人氣的“強(qiáng)心劑”。英、法、德等國也已經(jīng)爆發(fā)了反對政府的大規(guī)模示威游行。</P> <P>　　與美聯(lián)手制華符合歐洲利益。金融危機(jī)發(fā)生后，“G2”一度成為年度熱門詞匯。雖然“G2”并沒有被中美官方接受，中國總理甚至明確反對這一提法，但是歐洲對此提法卻非常“惱火”。與美聯(lián)手制華有助于在事實(shí)上打破“G2”局面。去年以來，歐洲智庫、媒體對歐洲對華政策進(jìn)行了反思，結(jié)論是負(fù)面的，認(rèn)為歐盟一直以來視中國將成為一個(gè)“負(fù)責(zé)任的利益相關(guān)者”的看法是錯(cuò)誤的，歐盟亟需對華采取強(qiáng)硬立場。2009年歐盟“憲法”《里斯本條約》歷時(shí)八年終獲通過，伴隨其生效的是歐盟對其機(jī)構(gòu)的調(diào)整和對外行動(dòng)力的提高。歐盟此時(shí)迫切希望能向外證明其用“一個(gè)聲音說話”的能力，并展示一個(gè)“硬漢”的新形象。2010年1月11日首任歐盟外交與安全政策高級代表阿什頓在出席歐洲議會(huì)聽證會(huì)時(shí)已明確提出，歐盟為面對中國等新興大國的崛起，須制定新的外交政策以應(yīng)對即將形成的國際新秩序，并對新興國家施加有效影響。國內(nèi)政治環(huán)境變化很可能促使美歐調(diào)整其對華政策，向示強(qiáng)的方向轉(zhuǎn)變可能性很大。</P> <P>　　面對歐美聯(lián)手制華的咄咄態(tài)勢，中國需要堅(jiān)定信心，明確方向，審時(shí)度勢，據(jù)理力爭，踏踏實(shí)實(shí)走好自己的路。</P></div> <div id="kkgkikgkg" class="coupage"> <script> 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