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margin-bottom:10px;"> <h1>民調(diào)支持率低分析稱薩科齊連任夢(mèng)或?qū)氐灼茰?/h1> </div> <div id="qqqo2qoqss" class="mainbox_01"style="text-align:center;color:#006aa2"> 時(shí)間：2012-03-15 10:36　　來(lái)源：中國(guó)新聞網(wǎng)</div> <div id="qqqo2qoqss" class="mainbox_02" id="textsize"><style type="text/css"> </style> <p>　　據(jù)新加坡《聯(lián)合早報(bào)》15日?qǐng)?bào)道，還有一個(gè)多月時(shí)間就是法國(guó)總統(tǒng)選舉，面對(duì)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷和失業(yè)率高企兩大難題，現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)薩科齊的連任之途可說(shuō)是布滿荊棘。</p> <p>　　<strong>“競(jìng)選動(dòng)物”連任總統(tǒng)夢(mèng)碎？</strong></p> <p>　　法國(guó)左翼報(bào)章《解放報(bào)》3月6日公布的民調(diào)顯示，74%聲稱已作出決定的法國(guó)選民當(dāng)中，只有四分之一表示會(huì)支持薩科齊。</p> <p>　　若此民調(diào)代表的選民意愿不變，薩科齊爭(zhēng)取連任的夢(mèng)想可謂已經(jīng)徹底破滅。</p> <p>　　當(dāng)然，有“競(jìng)選動(dòng)物”之稱的薩科齊絕對(duì)不會(huì)束手待斃，“變革”是他競(jìng)選總統(tǒng)的重要手段。</p> <p>　　本來(lái)，薩科齊信誓旦旦地“要將總統(tǒng)做到最后一分鐘”才會(huì)宣布參選。然而，在距離選舉不到三個(gè)月時(shí)，薩科齊的支持度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于他的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手、熱門的社會(huì)黨候選人奧朗德(Francois Hollande)。這使他不得不作出調(diào)整。</p> <p>　　路透社在2月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，民眾對(duì)薩科齊的不滿意度達(dá)到68%，使他成為法國(guó)史上最不受歡迎的總統(tǒng)之一。薩科齊的競(jìng)選陣營(yíng)擔(dān)心，如果讓奧朗德繼續(xù)領(lǐng)先，薩科齊將難以在最后關(guān)頭扭轉(zhuǎn)形勢(shì)。因此，薩科齊提前在2月15日宣布參選，與奧朗德舉行競(jìng)選大會(huì)“碰巧”在同一天。</p> <p>　　法國(guó)丟失了國(guó)際評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾的AAA最高主權(quán)信用評(píng)級(jí)，經(jīng)濟(jì)漲幅從薩科齊上任初期的每年增長(zhǎng)2.1%降至零增長(zhǎng)，失業(yè)率更是從8%升至9.3%，創(chuàng)下12年來(lái)的最高水平。</p> <p>　　歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)大環(huán)境也對(duì)薩科齊連任不利；歐元區(qū)危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來(lái)，歐洲各國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人不是被迫下臺(tái)(希臘、意大利)，就是選舉失敗下臺(tái)(西班牙)，至今還沒(méi)有一位在任領(lǐng)袖可以在危機(jī)中競(jìng)選連任成功的例子。</p> <p>　　除了經(jīng)濟(jì)因素，薩科齊的個(gè)人形象也不討好，關(guān)于他的負(fù)面新聞不時(shí)出現(xiàn)。　媒體過(guò)去曾大肆報(bào)道他熱衷名表游艇、高調(diào)離婚并追求現(xiàn)任妻子布魯尼，這讓他的“花花公子”形象深入人心。</p> <p>　　《解放報(bào)》年初報(bào)道，薩科齊涉及1994年的軍售回傭弊案，指時(shí)任預(yù)算部長(zhǎng)的薩科齊對(duì)回傭交易一事不但知情，更簽字認(rèn)可成立海外公司處理傭金回流。</p> <p>　　<strong>民調(diào)多不看好薩科齊</strong></p> <p>　　反對(duì)派則抨擊薩科齊試圖利用自身影響力，在2009年幫助尚在讀大學(xué)的兒子讓·薩科齊(Jean Sarkozy)爭(zhēng)取法國(guó)最大商業(yè)區(qū)拉臺(tái)芳斯商業(yè)區(qū)公共管理機(jī)構(gòu)委員會(huì)主席一職。</p> <p>　　多數(shù)民調(diào)都顯示，薩科齊會(huì)在4月22日第一輪投票中名列第二，并在5月6日的第二輪投票中，以至少12個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的大差距敗給奧朗德。</p> <p>　　民調(diào)公司BVA月初公布的民調(diào)結(jié)果更“驚人”，顯示在第二回合投票中，奧朗德會(huì)以59%對(duì)41%的大優(yōu)勢(shì)擊垮薩科齊，即把領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢(shì)從2月中以來(lái)的3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)擴(kuò)大到18個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。</p> <p>　　不過(guò)，薩科齊努力力挽狂瀾，最近頻頻放低姿態(tài)四處拜票，他這幾天也拿歐盟來(lái)祭旗，大肆抨擊其他伙伴國(guó)的貿(mào)易和移民政策，這一連串的表演使他的名望稍微回升。</p> <p>　　法國(guó)民調(diào)機(jī)構(gòu)Ifop3月13日公布的最新民調(diào)，首次顯示薩科齊會(huì)在第一輪投票中擊敗奧朗德，得票率是28.5%對(duì)27%。但這項(xiàng)民調(diào)并沒(méi)有為薩科齊帶來(lái)太大希望，因它同時(shí)顯示，薩科齊在第二輪還是難逃落敗的厄運(yùn)，將以45.5%敗給奧朗德的54.5%。</p> <p>　　分析稱，種種負(fù)面跡象令薩科齊舉步艱難，奧朗德則相對(duì)輕松。</p> <p>　　奧朗德雖然從未擔(dān)任過(guò)任何政府職務(wù)，毫無(wú)執(zhí)政經(jīng)驗(yàn)，但卻參與和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)社會(huì)黨經(jīng)歷了1995、2002和2007年三屆大選，稱得上是選舉場(chǎng)上的老手。奧朗德自一年前成為社會(huì)黨總統(tǒng)候選人以來(lái)，步步謹(jǐn)慎，迄今沒(méi)有犯過(guò)嚴(yán)重錯(cuò)誤，落人口實(shí)。</p> 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